Using VaR and CVaR techniques to calculate the long-term operational reserve

Generally, the more Renewable Energy Sources (RES) in generation mix the more complex is the problem of reliability assessment of generating systems, mainly because of the variability and uncertainty of generating capacity. These short-term concerns have been seen as a way of controlling the amount of spinning reserve, providing operators with information on operation system risks. For the medium and long-term assessment, such short-term concerns should be accounted for the system performance [1,2], assuring that investment options will result in more robust and flexible generating configurations that are consequently more secure. In order to deal with the spinning reserve needs, this work proposes the use of a risk based technique, Value-at-Risk and Conditional Value-at-Risk, to assist the planners of the Electric Power Systems (EPS) as regards the design of the flexibility of generating systems. This methodology was applied in the IEEE-RTS-96 HW producing adequate results.