Managing forecast uncertainty in power system security assessment

Accounting for the increasing uncertainties related to forecast of renewables is becoming an essential requirement while assessing the security of future power system scenarios. The FP7 EU project iTesla tackles these needs and reaches several major objectives, including the development of a security platform architecture. In particular, the platform implements a complex stochastic dependence model to simulate a reasonable cloud of plausible “future” states - due to renewable forecast - around the expected state, and evaluates the security on relevant states sampling the cloud of uncertainty. The paper focuses on the proposed model of the uncertainty and its exploitation in power system security assessment process.