An integrated modelling approach to study future water demand vulnerability in the Montargil Reservoir Basin, Portugal

This paper describes an integrated modelling approach to study water use vulnerability in a typical Mediterranean basin under different climate change projections. The soil water assessment tool (SWAT) and the MOHID (from modelo hidrodinâmico) Water model were used to evaluate the impacts of two climate scenarios (GFDL-ESM2M and IPSL-CM5A-LR) on water availability in Montargil's basin and reservoir (Portugal) during two decadal timelines (2030 and 2060). Reservoir performance metrics were estimated considering also two water demand scenarios: an average of the water demand in the last 10 years; and the largest annual demand of the last 10 years. The SWAT model results showed a future decrease of inflows to the reservoir, with its volumetric reliability decreasing from 100% in the historical simulation to about 60-70% in the IPSL-CM5A-LR climate scenario and 40-50% in the GFDL-ESM2M climate scenario. The time reliability also decreased to less than 30%, while the resiliency for the water demand decreased to an average 20-35% for both climate scenarios. These impacts indicate the importance of the managing systems in an integrative mode to prevent water resources reduction in the region.